The Prospectus and Structured Listening

Week 6 · Chapter 6 · MC 501 Research Methods for Mass Communications

Dr. Alex Leith

This week

Week 6 · Chapters 6 and 7

  • Due tonight: Topic Selection and Research Questions
  • Chapter 6: the prospectus, and the research question it is built around
  • Chapter 7: structured listening, the immersion that precedes coding
  • Assigned reading: Lakens (2022), “Sample size justification”
  • The through line: a plan is only a plan once its numbers are defended

The paralysis

  • You have read thirty articles, notes scattered across several documents
  • The project feels too small (one study) and too large (impossible to finish)
  • The problem is not a lack of ideas. It is a lack of focus.
  • A prospectus is roughly one page: what you study, why it matters, how you will do it
  • It is a diagnostic. If you cannot state the project on one page, you cannot yet begin it.

Two questions

  • A: “How does livestreaming affect people?”
  • B: “Does the rate of chat messages per viewer differ between gaming and non-gaming streams?”
  • A is a career-spanning program disguised as a single question
  • B names what will be measured, what will be compared, and what evidence would answer it
  • The craft of this course is the craft of getting from A to B

What a strong question does

  • Specific: names the platform, the outcome, the bounded population. “How does social media influence politics?” leaves all three undefined.
  • Measurable: survives operationalization. “Do authentic streamers build better communities?” cannot be studied until “authentic” and “better” become observable.
  • Answerable within your constraints: decades of data, or hundreds of interviews, is not a semester project no matter how good the question

What a strong question does, continued

  • Not already definitively answered: your Chapter 4 search should show the question is open
  • It matters: contributes to theory, resolves a contradiction, or has applied value
  • Tuesday streams versus Thursday streams is answerable and still trivia
  • The template: does there exist + a specific variable + a relationship or difference
    • a bounded population + the confounds accounted for

The funnel, first passes

  • 1: “I am interested in Twitch chat.” Too broad. What aspect? Which streams?
  • 2: “How viewers participate in chat.” Better, still vast.
  • 3: “Whether chat participation differs across kinds of streams.” Which kinds? Measured how?
  • Each pass trades breadth for depth
  • Scope creep is the failure mode: more questions, more theories, one more thing

The funnel, the version that ships

  • 4: “Whether chat message volume differs between gaming and non-gaming streams”
  • 5: “Draw a stratified sample from the 50-channel working corpus, code each message as directed at the streamer or broadcast to the room, and test whether the proportion of directed messages differs between gaming and non-gaming streams”
  • Version 5 fits a semester. It will not answer everything. It will answer something rigorously.
  • Narrowing is not weakness. It is discipline.

Three ways narrowing fails

  • The impossible comparison: “are Twitch viewers lonelier than non-viewers?” compares groups that differ in many ways besides the one studied
  • The circular question: “do popular streamers attract large audiences because people want to watch them?” defines its terms in a loop
  • The false binary: “is it the streamer or the game?” forces a choice the data does not require. Ask how much each contributes, and whether they interact.

Choosing an operationalization

Parasocial relationship (Horton & Wohl, 1956) is not directly observable. Three routes:

  • Self-report scale: captures subjective experience, invites social desirability bias
  • Behavioral indicators (donations, subscription length, hours watched): more reliable than self-report, but a behavior does not always reflect the bond you think it does
  • Language analysis of chat: naturalistic, labor-intensive, blind to viewers who feel strongly and never post

There is no right answer. You defend the proxy you chose.

Three research goals

  • Exploratory: “what is going on here?” Generates hypotheses. Output is patterns and themes.
  • Descriptive: “what does the landscape look like?” Output is frequencies and prevalence.
  • Explanatory: “why does this happen?” Hypothesis-driven. Output is support or disconfirmation.
  • Research on a topic often moves through these in order
  • You need not do all three. You must know which one you are attempting.

Question, hypothesis, null

  • A research question is interrogative: use it when exploring, or when theory makes no clear prediction, or when the literature is too contradictory
  • A hypothesis is declarative: use it when theory predicts, or when prior work points to a likely outcome
  • Behind every hypothesis sits the null: no relationship, no difference
  • The null is what statistical tests actually evaluate, and it is the sacred flaw again

The number that has to be defended

  • Statistical power is the probability of detecting an effect of a given size, if it is real
  • A study at 50% power has a coin-flip chance of finding a real effect
  • The conventional minimum is 80%, and below it a significant result is less credible: underpowered studies inflate false positives and overestimate effect sizes
  • In your prospectus, the number of cases is not asserted. It is defended.

Lakens on the convention

“the default recommendation to aim for 80% power lacks a solid justification.”

Lakens (2022, p. 6)

  • The 80% figure is a convention, not a derived optimum
  • Lakens treats justification by resource constraint as a last resort
  • The question that follows: is it defensible to run a design you know is underpowered?

Computing the required n

With an effect size from your Chapter 4 reading and α = .05:

library(pwr)
# Two-group t-test, medium effect (d = 0.5), 80% power
pwr.t.test(d = 0.5, sig.level = 0.05, power = 0.80, type = "two.sample")

Ask pwr how many cases a two-group comparison needs to have an 80% chance of finding a medium effect. The answer, n = 64 per group, is the sampling-plan justification your prospectus method section will carry.

Discussion

On Lakens (2022), “Sample size justification”:

  • Lakens argues the 80% convention lacks solid justification. What would a justified target look like for the study you are proposing?
  • He ranks resource constraints last among acceptable justifications. Is that ranking fair to the realities of a one-semester, one-coder project?
  • If you cannot reach the n your power analysis demands, which is the more honest move: revise the question, change the design, or report the limitation?

Five minutes in pairs, then we compare answers.

Topic, theory, and data

  • Three elements must align, or the study collapses
  • Topic is bounded by population, time, medium, or context. “Livestreaming” is not a topic. “Chat participation in the 50-channel working corpus” is.
  • Theory must predict patterns you can actually observe in your data
  • Data must be accessible, sufficient, and appropriate to the question
  • Misalignment example: parasocial topic, political-economy theory, chat-message data. Political economy explains industry structure; chat messages are individual expression.

Six components of a prospectus

  1. A descriptive title hinting at the key variables
  2. One to three focused questions or hypotheses, not five and not ten
  3. A theoretical framework, two to three sentences, naming the theory and its relevance
  4. A gap statement, two to three sentences, citing a few key sources
  5. A method overview, three to four sentences: data, coding, number of cases
  6. An expected contribution, one to two sentences

Roughly 250 words, one page, every sentence carrying weight.

The model prospectus: question and frame

Research question. Does the proportion of chat messages directed at the streamer differ between streams in gaming categories and streams in non-gaming categories, among the 50 channels in the Twitch working corpus?

Theoretical framework. Uses and gratifications theory (Katz, Blumler, & Gurevitch, 1973) holds that audiences actively select media to satisfy specific needs, including social ones.

The model prospectus: method and contribution

  • A stratified sample of 1,500 chat messages from the 50-channel working corpus, balanced across gaming and non-gaming streams
  • Each message is the unit of analysis
  • Three mutually exclusive codes: directed at streamer, broadcast to the room, unclassifiable
  • Reliability against a second coder on a 10 percent subsample, Krippendorff’s alpha
  • Contribution: tests whether a survey finding leaves a visible trace in coded behavior

The prospectus as pre-registration

  • Pre-registration commits publicly to hypotheses, methods, and analysis plan before data are collected or analyzed. The Open Science Framework timestamps the commitment.
  • Simmons, Nelson, and Simonsohn (2011) showed that researchers without a plan can adjust hypotheses, variables, and choices until a result reaches significance
  • That is the source of the term researcher degrees of freedom
  • Your prospectus is an informal pre-registration: the record of what you set out to do

Chapter 7: what a coder cannot see

  • A coder who has never watched Twitch reads “KEKW” and sees a typo, not laughter
  • They read thirty identical messages and do not recognize copypasta
  • They read “@sodapoppin same” and cannot tell agreement from a reflexive stock reply
  • The scheme sorts every message confidently, and the buckets do not mean what you think
  • Geertz (1973) called the alternative thick description: a record rich enough to capture not just what happened but what it meant in context

Three modes of attention

  • Casual watching: initial exposure across the range of the platform. No notes, no coding. Replace your assumptions about Twitch with exposure to it.
  • Focused watching: same streams, one dimension at a time. Chat behavior, viewer trajectories, host moves. Brief notes after each pass.
  • Analytical watching: pattern recognition across more streams. What recurs? What clusters with what? What resists description?
  • Familiarize, then focus, then analyze. The sequence holds for any medium.

Field notes, four kinds

  • Observational: what you saw. “Chat moved in bursts, near silence while the streamer talked, then a flood at every question.”
  • Methodological: a measurement problem. “A coder reading the log as text cannot see the question that prompted the burst.”
  • Theoretical: an observation connected to a framework you have read
  • Comparative: how cases differ. “Gaming and non-gaming chat are not the same object.”
  • One dated plain-text document, a note every fifteen or twenty minutes

Before Week 7

  • Read Chapter 7 in full and Chapter 8, “From vibes to variables”
  • Read the assigned article: Hayes & Krippendorff (2007), “Answering the call for a standard reliability measure for coding data”
  • Due next week: the Research Proposal, as a structured sentence outline
  • Begin your structured listening log now. The codebook is built from it.
  • Journal entry, 450 to 500 words, engaging both the chapter and the reading